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CONTACT: Vivian Todini, 917-747-7980

NCRW SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS -11-2-06

BRING TROOPS HOME: Candidates who favor getting American troops out of Iraq have a two-to-one advantage over politicians who want to stay the course.

WOMEN: Women voters are leading the electorate in demanding a pullout -- with a three to one preference for candidates who want to get the troops out of Iraq over those who want to keep the troops there (59 percent to 21 percent). Although the majority of men would also be more likely to vote for Out-of-Iraq candidates, there is a significant gender gap as men favor a pullout by a lower margin 48 percent to 31 percent. Women would be twice as likely as men to vote for candidates who want to get the troops out of Iraq.

BLACK AND LATINA WOMEN: More united in their opposition to the war.

  • 83% of Black women voters would vote for candidates who favor withdrawal from Iraq. Only 9% would vote for candidates who want to stay the course, a margin of 9 to 1.
  • 68% of Hispanic women voters for Out-of-Iraq Candidates vs. 11% for Staying the Course Candidates. The margin is 68 to 11, or 6 to 1.

DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICAN WOMEN:

  • Democratic women favored candidates who want to bring the troops home by over eight to one (78 percent to 9 percent).
  • Independent women favored bring-the-troops-home candidates by five to one (60 percent to 12 percent).
  • Republican women were slightly likelier to vote for stay-the-course candidates (42 percent to 35 percent).

ACROSS THE COUNTRY: Voters in every region want the troops home:

  • In the South, it’s a 2 to 1 margin in favor of candidates who say they favor withdrawing troops within the next 12 months.
  • In the West, the margin is 51 to 30.
  • In the Northeast, the margin is 3 to 1.

TREND: Confirms trends found in Ms. Magazine Survey – and shows numbers increasing:

Five months ago, the Ms. Survey found:

  1. WOMEN: 55 percent of women favored troop withdrawal – NCRW poll shows 59 percent of women favoring candidates who want the troops out, compared to only 21 percent who would vote against them.
  1. MEN: Ms. Poll found 43 percent of men favored troop withdrawal while 51 percent wanted to stay the course or increase American troop presence in Iraq. NCRW poll found that 48 percent of men now say they would vote for candidates who want to bring the troops home and 31 percent say they would vote against them.

IRAQ TOP ISSUE: Iraq showed up on the NCRW poll as the most important voting issue:

  • More than 1 out of 5 named it first or second on an open-ended question, leading the economy, health care and education, the only other issues cited by more than 1 out of 10.

EDUCATION LEADS TERRORISM:

  • EDUCATION MOMS: Married women with kids, the so-called “security moms,” are nearly three times likelier to cite education as their top priority than terrorism.
  • HISPANIC WOMEN: The largest number of Hispanic women (13%) cite education as their top priority, followed closely by Iraq at 11%. Only 3% of Hispanic women say that terrorism is their top priority.
  • BLACK WOMEN: Black women are especially likely to consider education a key issue, with fully 98 percent saying it is either extremely or very important.
  • HISPANIC WOMEN: Education – along with the economy and health care – is also a key issue for Hispanic women. 85% cite education, the economy and health care as extremely or very important to their vote for Congress.
  • LOW INCOME WOMEN: Low income women are likelier than high income women to cite education as highly important.
  • COST OF EDUCATION: The vast majority of both women and men want to increase student aid for college and university.
    • By a margin of more than five to one overall – and six to one for women – they would vote for a candidate who favored increased student aid over a candidate who opposed it.

OTHER ISSUES:

  • WOMEN: Women are at least five times more likely than less likely to vote for a candidate who supports:
    • full funding of the Violence Against Women Act (20 times more likely)
    • a higher minimum wage (7 times)
    • a national guarantee of affordable, accessible and quality health care (6 times)
    • guaranteed paid sick days for all workers (5 times)
    • emphasizing cooperation with other countries (5 times)
    • increasing student aid (6 times)
  • Women of color: Women of color overall are at least five times more than less likely to vote for a candidate who supports:
  • full funding of the Violence Against Women Act (17 times)
    • a national guarantee of affordable, accessible and quality health care (17 times)
    • a higher minimum wage (16 times)
    • increasing student aid (12 times)
    • guaranteed paid sick days for all workers (12 times)
    • emphasizing cooperation with other countries (8 times)
    • ensuring that couples have access to safe and effective birth control (6 times)
    • comprehensive sex education in schools (6 times)
  • African American Women: African American Women are at least five times more than less likely to vote for a candidate who supports:
    • a national guarantee of affordable, accessible and quality health care (46 times)
    • a higher minimum wage (43 times)
    • guaranteed paid sick days for all workers (41 times)
  • full funding of the Violence Against Women Act (18 times)
    • increasing student aid (15 times)
    • emphasizing cooperation with other countries (9 times)
    • comprehensive sex education in schools (8 times)
    • ensuring that couples have access to safe and effective birth control (7 times)
    • repealing recent tax cuts (6 times)
  • HISPANIC WOMEN: Hispanic women are at least five times more than less likely to vote for a candidate who supports:
  • full funding of the Violence Against Women Act (14 times more likely)
    • a national guarantee of affordable, accessible and quality health care (11 times)
    • increasing student aid (9 times)
    • guaranteed paid sick days for all workers (8 times)
    • a higher minimum wage (8 times)
    • ensuring that couples have access to safe and effective birth control (6 times)
    • comprehensive sex education in schools (5 times)

SEX EDUCATION: By a margin of more than 2 to 1, people said they would vote for a candidate who favored comprehensive sex education -- including teaching about birth control and safe sex -- over a candidate who opposed it.

THE POLL:

  • Telephone survey between September 28 and October 9.
  • Random sample of 2,097 registered voters, conducted by Opinion Research Corporation of Princeton NJ.
  • The margin of error is two percentage points.

 

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